|
|
The decoupling of solar power prices from their underlying
costs hides the low and rapidly falling cost structure of solar
power. Today, the »true cost« of solar power is under 25¢ per
kWh in most locations and is likely to reach 10¢ to 15¢ per
kWh by 2010. This includes all costs of manufacturing and
installing solar power systems from pre-silicon (i.e. TCS) to
connected-installations without incentives or tax benefits.
Already, solar is at a cost level that makes it competitive with
residential grid prices in the OECD's highest-priced markets. It
is estimated that the cost of solar power is below the price of
residential grid electricity for 5 to 10 percent of OECD
consumption (200 to 400 TWh). This equates to 150 to 300 GW of
solar power, compared to only 2.7 GW of solar cell/module
production in 2006.
Over the next three years, it is expected that the typical
fully-loaded cost of solar power will decrease at least 30
percent from $3.60 per W in 2006 to $2.50 per W. In consequence,
by 2010, the cost of solar will be below the price of grid
electricity for at least 50 percent of OECD residential demand,
equivalent to around 1,500 GW of solar power. This is much
larger than the 15 GW of cell/module production PHOTON
Consulting anticipates for 2010.
This conclusion is based on rigorous bottom-up analysis of the
cost structures of more than 75 solar power companies at various
stages of the supply chain. This data comes from both public
disclosures (including the financial statements of
publicly-traded solar companies) and private sources (including
internal cost structures provided by dozens of solar power
companies under the condition that we share only synthesized
data). All numbers in this report were peer-reviewed by several
senior executives within the solar power sector. For further
information see the
Executive Summary.
To order your copy of the True Cost report for a price of 1,100
Euro before 7% VAT (PHOTON subscribers pay 950 Euro before 7%
VAT), please fill out the online order form or the
fax form.
|
|
This report provides detailed analysis showing that the cost of solar is lower than most people think and will continue to fall through 2010.
